Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.101252 0.118264 0.137931 0.162507 0.192614 0.228579 0.275221
2025-07-13 0.076570 0.096439 0.121662 0.156547 0.204374 0.268893 0.364711
2025-07-20 0.062189 0.083593 0.113089 0.157827 0.226018 0.329659 0.506625
2025-07-27 0.052247 0.074509 0.107608 0.162425 0.255197 0.414576 0.730996
2025-08-03 0.043944 0.066069 0.101304 0.164649 0.283247 0.513696 1.050477
2025-08-10 0.036263 0.057027 0.092117 0.159961 0.299278 0.603631 1.435956
2025-08-17 0.029758 0.048632 0.082210 0.151451 0.306136 0.683691 1.895734
2025-08-24 0.025606 0.043493 0.077016 0.150928 0.331588 0.830235 2.762956
2025-08-31 0.022310 0.039275 0.072660 0.151143 0.360777 1.017285 4.146147
2025-09-07 0.019628 0.035714 0.068854 0.151679 0.393084 1.253527 6.402280
2025-09-14 0.017433 0.032715 0.065581 0.152708 0.429528 1.557095 10.255708
2025-09-21 0.015236 0.029321 0.060703 0.148102 0.447160 1.819908 15.373385
2025-09-28 0.012103 0.023560 0.049506 0.123437 0.385433 1.660025 15.955481
2025-10-05 0.010788 0.021556 0.046869 0.122945 0.415904 2.059064 27.846750
2025-10-12 0.009881 0.020308 0.045837 0.127237 0.471892 2.765134 59.576749
2025-10-19 0.009166 0.019382 0.045442 0.133777 0.547675 3.888943 155.784325
2025-10-26 0.008450 0.018323 0.044462 0.138177 0.621498 5.361886 459.315258
2025-11-02 0.007636 0.016886 0.042094 0.136594 0.663715 6.782879 1311.946874
2025-11-09 0.006831 0.015343 0.039080 0.131342 0.680527 8.063518 3773.839171
2025-11-16 0.006293 0.014407 0.037696 0.132423 0.745539 10.809326 25978.249298
2025-11-23 0.005826 0.013587 0.036490 0.133910 0.820148 14.787622 723699.935192
2025-11-30 0.005414 0.012848 0.035382 0.135491 0.902929 20.565362 NaN
2025-12-07 0.005050 0.012189 0.034394 0.137349 0.996920 29.263759 NaN